WNBA playoff photo, standings, projections: Sky takes top two seed; Sparks keep vague hopes alive

The 2022 WNBA regular season is drawing to a close, but the playoff race is heating up. So far, five teams have punched their playoff tickets — the Chicago Sky, Las Vegas Aces, Connecticut Sun, Seattle Storm and Washington Mystics — while the Indiana Fever is the only team to be eliminated.

Looking closer, no seeds are locked in and some exciting races remain. The top three teams are all chasing the No. 1 seed; the Storm and Mystics compete for fourth place; and six teams from 6th-11th are in a real scrap for the last three places.

As a reminder, the WNBA has changed its playoff system again. While the top eight teams will still make it to the playoffs, there will be no more byes. Instead, each team starts playing in the first round with a standard bracket format with the number 1 seed vs. the number 8 seed, the number 2 seed vs. the number 7 seed, the number 3 seed vs. the number 6 seed and the number 4 seed versus the number 5 seed. The brace will not be repositioned after the first round.

The matchups in the first round are best-of-three series, with the higher series playing Games 1 and 2 at home, and the lower series Game 3. The semi-finals and finals are both best-of-five series with a 2 -2-1 format, meaning the higher seeded will host Games 1, 2, and 5, while the lower seeded team will host Games 3 and 4.

Current state

1. Chicago Sky (25-8) — Playoff spot won

2. Las Vegas Aces (23-10) — Playoff spot won

3. Connecticut Sun (22-11) — Playoff spot won

4. Seattle Storm (20-13) — Playoff spot won

5. Washington Mystics (20-14) — Playoff spot won

6. Dallas Wings (16-16)

7. Atlanta dream (14-18)

8. Phoenix Mercury (14-19)

9. New York Freedom (13-19)

10. Minnesota Lynx (13-20)

11. Los Angeles Sparks (13-20)

12. Indiana Fever (5-29) — eliminated

As the action continues, here’s a closer look at the playoff photo:

Race for the number 1 seed

1. Chicago Sky (25-8) — Playoff spot won

• Remaining games: 3 (vs. Storm, at Aces, at Mercury)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Aces: 1-1 in season series with one game to go; vs. Sun: won 3-0 season series
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 8 Phoenix Mercury

The Sky nearly lost a 17-point lead over the sun, but came along the trajectory with some big shots to secure their second straight win, with at least a top two seed. However, they still have some work to do to hold off the Aces, especially as the two teams meet next week in a match that will decide the tiebreaker between them.

2. Las Vegas Aces (23-10) — Playoff spot won

• Remaining games: 3 (vs. dream, vs. sky, vs. storm)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Sky: 1-1 in season series with one game to go; vs. Sun: won season series 2-1
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 7 Atlanta Dream

After a surprise loss to the Wings, the Aces recovered with an impressive road win over the Storm in Sue Bird’s last regular-season game in Seattle. A’ja Wilson led the way with 29 points as the Aces kept pace with the Sky in the hunt for the number 1 seed, one game ahead of the Sun in the race for second place.

3. Connecticut Sun (22-11) — Playoff spot won

• Remaining games: 3 (two at Sparks, vs Lynx)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Sky: lost season 0-4; vs. Aces: Season Series Lost 1-2
• Current match in the first round: vs. 6 Dallas Wings

The Sun’s hot streak came to an end on Sunday afternoon with a heartbreaking loss to the Sky, leaving them 0-4 against the defending champions this season. With that loss, the sun is officially out of the race for the number 1 seed. The best they can do now is second place, although even that will be a challenge as they don’t have a tiebreak against the Aces.

Two teams fight for No. 4

4. Seattle Storm (20-13)

• Remaining games: 3 (at Sky, at Lynx, at Aces)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mystics: won 2-1 season series
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 5 Washington Mystics

5. Washington Mystics (20-14)

• Remaining games: 2 (in case of fever, versus fever)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Storm: Lost Season Series 1-2
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 4 Seattle Storm

One of the most exciting races right now is in the middle of the standings where the Storm and Mystics go head to head for fourth place and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams came into action on Sunday and both suffered defeats — the Storm at the hands of the Aces, and the Mystics in a somewhat controversial way to the Sparks.

Those results put the Storm ahead of half a game in the standings with one game in hand. The Storm also has the tiebreaker between the two teams, which could make all the difference at the end of the regular season.

Seats 6-8 up for grabs

6. Dallas Wings (16-16)

• Remaining games: 4 (two vs. Liberty, at Mercury, at Sparks)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mercury: 2-1 in season series with one game to go; vs. Sparks: 1-2 in season series with one game to go; vs. Dream: Season 1-2 lost; vs. Liberty: 1-0 in season’s series with two games to go; vs. Lynx: won season series 2-1
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun

The Wings trailed the low Fever by 20 points on Saturday night, but they came all the way back to secure an overtime win. Now, with a four-game run of the season, the Wings are back to .500 and have a three-game lead over ninth place Liberty. They are in very good shape but with two games to go against the Liberty they still have some work to do to secure a spot.

7. Atlanta dream (14-19)

• Remaining games: 3 (at Aces, vs. Liberty, at Liberty)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mercury: Won Seasonal Series 2-1; Sparks: won season series 2-1; vs. Wings: won season series 2-1; vs. Liberty: 1-1 in season series with two games to go; vs. Lynx: Lost Season Series 1-2
• Current match in the first round: vs. No. 2 Las Vegas Aces

The shorthanded Dream fell into the hands of the Lynx on Sunday and lost the tiebreak between the clubs. They now cling to seventh place via a tiebreak on the Mercury, and their lead over ninth place Liberty has shrunk to half a game with two more matchups between them. The Dream still has some work to do to secure a spot in the playoffs.

8. Phoenix Mercury (14-19)

• Remaining games: 3 (vs Lynx, vs Wings, vs Sky)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Sparks: 2-2 season series tied, currently own tiebreak via better record against teams above .500; vs. Wings: 1-2 in series with one game to go; vs. Dream: Season 1-2 lost; vs. Liberty: won season series 2-1; vs. Lynx: lost season series 0-3
• Current match in the first round: vs. #1 Chicago Sky

The Mercury finally returned home on Saturday and they got back on track with a huge win over the Liberty despite being out of both Skylar Diggins-Smith (illness) and Diana Taurasi (quad). With this win, the Mercury took the Liberty season series and jumped to eighth in the standings.

9. New York Freedom (13-19)

• Remaining games: 4 (two at Wings, at Dream, vs. Dream)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mercury: Season 1-2 lost; vs. Sparks: won season series 2-1; vs. Wings: 0-1 in season series with two games to go; vs. Dream: 1-1 in season series with two games to go; vs. Lynx: Lost Season Series 1-2
• Current match in the first round: N/A

Despite Sabrina Ionescu’s excellent playing lately, the Liberty’s three-game winning streak came to a frustrating end on Saturday as they shot 30.9 percent from the field and lost to a Mercury team that played without Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi. With that result, they lost the tiebreaker to the Mercury and dropped to ninth in the standings.

10. Minnesota Lynx (13-20)

• Remaining games: 3 (at Mercury, vs. Storm, at Sun)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mercury: Won 3-0 Season Series; vs. Sparks: won season series 2-1; vs. Wings: Lost 1-2 season series; vs. Dream: won season series 2-1; vs. Liberty: won season series 2-1
• Current match in the first round: N/A

The Lynx desperately needed a win on Sunday, and they got one while caring for the Dream in Napheesa Collier returns to action. Minnesota is now just one game behind both Phoenix (eighth) and Atlanta (seventh) and has the tiebreaker over both teams. With three games to go, including one against the Mercury, the Lynx are right about this.

11. Los Angeles Sparks (13-20)

• Remaining games: 3 (two vs sun, vs wings)
• Tiebreakers: vs. Mercury: Season series tied at 2-2, currently losing a tiebreaker over a worse record against teams over .500; vs. Wings: 2-1 in series with one game to go; vs. Dream: Season 1-2 lost; vs. Liberty: Season 1-2 lost; vs. Lynx: Lost Season Series 1-2
• Current match in the first round: vs. N/A

Thanks to a surprise, somewhat controversial win over the Mystics on Sunday, the Sparks have finally broken their six-game loss streak and kept their nebulous hopes for playoffs alive. They are just one game behind both the Dream and Mercury for seventh and eighth place respectively, but have no tiebreaker against either team. Plus, they still have two games to go against third-place Sun.

The bottom of the playoff picture is a bit of a mess, with the five teams between seventh and eleventh in the standings separated by just one game. Each team has at least one game left against the other teams in this group, and only a handful of tiebreakers have been settled. All of this means that these current standings won’t stay the same for long.

eliminated

12. Indiana Fever (5-29)

The Fever has now lost 16 games in a row and was the first team to be eliminated from the playoffs. With a sixth consecutive lottery appearance on the way, they’re hoping for some luck with the ping pong balls to end the worst piece in franchise history.