Meteorologist blames climate change for weather forecast errors

Climate change has compromised the ability of meteorologists to accurately predict severe weather events, according to the director of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

in a article published Sunday in the Hindu Timesdr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stressed that climate change has increased the unpredictability of weather patterns, making forecasting more difficult.

“Climate change has increased instability in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in convective activity — thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfall,” Mohapatra said. “The intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing.”

“This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events presents a challenge to forecasters,” he continued. “Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered by climate change.”

That is why IMD is expanding its observation network with radars, automatic weather stations, rain gauges and satellites to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts.

“Climate change is a fact and we need to plan all our activities accordingly,” Mohapatra said.

Despite tremendous scientific advances, weather forecasts have remained proverbially inaccurate due to the weather’s inherent unpredictability and the near-infinite number of variables influencing the results, leading some scientists to question even less reliable climate forecasts that stretch into the coming decades. .

dr. Duane Thresher, a climate scientist with a PhD from Columbia University and NASA GISS who has pioneered both tree ring climate proxy modeling and ocean climate proxy modeling, has argued that climate models are inherently flawed.

“Climate models are simply more complex/chaotic weather models, which have a theoretical maximum predictive power of only 10 days into the future,” Thresher said. “Predicting climate decades or even years into the future is a lie, albeit a useful one for publication and funding.”

Scientists are using climate ‘proxies’ such as tree rings and ice cores, Thresher says, as substitutes for real climate measurements. The conclusions reached are “inaccurate and unreliable well beyond what is necessary for the conclusions drawn.”

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