The man who occupied the Oval Office held meetings this first season and supported candidates across the country. And the past week has seen pivotal tests of its influence, from Michigan to Kansas, across Arizona and as far as Washington State.
It is with Trump’s power within the Republican Party that we begin our weekly journey to the numbers.
Last week, however, provided evidence that Trump remains a center of power within the party. It fits with other data suggesting that while the former president may not be that powerful
as he once was, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the GOP.
Trump-backed candidates won major statewide primaries in Arizona, including for the governor (where Trump’s candidate defeated the one endorsed by former Vice President Mike Pence), the U.S. Senate, Attorney General and Secretary of Foreign Affairs. They all deny the fact that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election.
Likewise, Michigan’s Trump-approved Tudor Dixon won the Republican nomination for governor. And US Representative Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6 last year, went down in the GOP primary against another Trump-backed election denier in the 3rd congressional district.
Trump’s Choice for Kansas Governor (Derek Schmidt) won his primaries
The former president has been quite successful this first season in GOP competitions with no incumbents or those with two incumbent legislators due to reclassification. By my count, his candidates have won just under 90% of the contested governor or congressional primaries that either had no incumbents or two incumbents because of redistricting.
That’s a strong number, though less than the 96% of such primaries its candidates won in the 2020 cycle.
So far, the only major game last week that a Trump candidate lost was in the open primaries for Washington’s 4th district. GOP Representative Dan Newhouse advanced to the general election under the state’s top two primary system, even though he had voted to impeach Trump and resist a challenge from Trump-approved Loren Culp, who was in third. place stood.
But even Newhouse’s progress proves the point that Trump remains a center of power in the GOP. As of Sunday, Newhouse took in just over 25% of the vote and just 34% of those who voted for a Republican candidate in the district. That’s incredibly weak for a sitting congressman.
Indeed, David Valadao of Newhouse and California, the only other Republican to have voted to impeach Trump so far and made it to the November vote, has secured about 25% of the primary vote. And both did that in the primaries where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran on the same ballot, with the top two voters going to November — meaning a lot of non-Republicans voted.
Trump’s success in the primaries this season shouldn’t be too surprising given the national polls. Its very favorable rating among Republicans is in the low 50s. This has dropped from about 70% at the end of the 2020 campaign, but it means just over half of Republicans really love Trump. There is no other active candidate that comes close to that level of worship.
Speaking of candidates who are not Trump, few non-incumbents have ever polled at or higher than where Trump currently sits in the early national presidential primary polls — he sits at about 50% of the national primary vote
The non-Trump candidates who have done this in the modern primary era appear to be Democrats Al Gore in 1998 and Hillary Clinton in 2014. Both won their party’s nomination in the next presidential election.
The closest Republicans were George HW Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both were in their low 40s and would win the GOP nomination.
While it is true that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is winning against Trump nationally, he is still about 25 points behind him.
Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s position in the GOP is to look at the verbs “can” and “will.” Trump could be defeated if he decides to run for the Republican nomination. However, he will be hard to beat.
A blurry photo three months before Election Day
Before we get ahead of ourselves with all this talk about 2024, there are big elections this year! The 2022 interim deadlines are only about three months away, and the picture has become more uncertain as we approach the date.
Normally, midterms follow a simple pattern
. The White House party is losing seats in Congress (especially the House). This is especially the case when the incumbent president
has an approval score of less than 50%. Biden’s approval rating is below 40%.
Still, the generic congress vote
is getting tighter. The three-point lead that Republicans had in May has now completely disappeared. (The generic vote usually asks respondents some form of the following question: “If Congressional elections were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican party?”)
This is unusual. Often the challenging party improves his position
on the general mood in the course of the intermediate cycle.
The haziness in the national environment can be linked to what voters feel as the important matters of the day
. Yes, the economy is the number 1 issue. And yes, inflation remains historically high. This has led to a decline in real disposable income per capita (ie, the money Americans have to spend).
Still, there are facets of the economy that are quite good or at least improving. We are bound for the lowest unemployment rate
in more than 50 years. the fair Is on
. Gas prices are down
from their June peak.
In addition to the economy, there are also other issues at play. Abortion may not be as high on the list of voter priorities as the economy, but more Americans than ever since at least 1984 say it’s a top problem.
We’ve seen over the past week that abortion can motivate voters. Democrats have seen a massive increase in Kansas voter turnout compared to all other primary so far this season.
Answering the question of who will control Congress next year has also become confused in another way: the House and Senate can be controlled by different parties.
democrats will probably lose the house
, even if the national picture improves for them. They just have too much exposure.
Democrats, however, are little more than a minor underdog in their bid to maintain control of the Senate. We’ve seen good recent polls for them in battlefield states like Georgia
. Those same polls show that Republicans have had a problem nominating candidates who are not liked.
The bottom line is that people running in elections are in for an exciting final three months of the 2022 campaign.
For your short encounters: Football has begun
America’s No. 1 sport kicked off Thursday, with the first preseason game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders aired nationally on NBC.
And despite it being a completely pointless affair, more than 5 million people have in tune
. That’s a small audience considering the number of people watching regular season games. But as a sign of how strong the NFL is, the game was by far the highest-rated show of the night.
Just remember: preseason doesn’t matter. The last two teams
to lose every game of the regular season in a season having won every game of that preseason.
Drinkers and non-drinkers actually agree
: A new Gallup poll
shows that 75% of Americans believe that alcohol has a negative effect on society. This includes 85% of drinkers and 71% of non-drinkers.
Own an electric car
: While 67% of Americans are in favor of incentives to increase hybrid and electric vehicle use, only 42% say they are at least somewhat inclined to buy one the next time they buy a vehicle, according to one Pew Research Center Survey
. Only 16% were highly likely.
Winter is coming
: As heat rages across much of the continental United States, winter storm warnings have been issued in Alaska this weekend. It is a sign that summer cannot last all year round. After all, we have lost more than 20 minutes of sunlight
at the end of the day in New York City for the past few months.